Unless political leaders take immediate action to decarbonize and restore nature, the global economy will suffer from the devastating shock of climate change, with a decline in GDP between 2070 and 2090, according to a new report. could face a loss of 50% of GDP.
A stark warning from risk management experts Institute and Faculty of Actuariesor IFoA, significantly increases estimates of the risks to the world’s economic health from climate change impacts such as fires, floods, droughts, rising temperatures, and the destruction of nature. IFoA, which uses mathematics and statistics to analyze financial risks for businesses and governments, calls for political leaders to accelerate efforts to tackle the climate crisis in a report published Thursday with scientists from the University of Exeter. I asked for it.
their report Published after data from European Union Copernicus Climate Change Service showed that climate change has increased global annual temperatures The internationally agreed temperature target of 1.5 degrees Celsius for 2024 has been exceeded for the first time, further accelerating extreme weather events.
Without urgent action to accelerate decarbonizationThe IFoA report says that if we remove carbon from the atmosphere and restore nature, the worst plausible hit to the global economy would be 50 percent in the 20 years to 2090.
By 2050, temperatures above 3 degrees Celsius will result in more than 4 billion deaths, deep sociopolitical divisions, and state failure worldwide (resulting in rapid, sustained, and significant capital losses); And extinction may occur.
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Sandy Trust, lead author of the report, said there was no realistic plan to avoid this scenario.
He said that economic projections that predict that even if the world’s average surface temperature rises by 3 degrees Celsius, the damage caused by global warming will remain at around 2% of global economic output are inaccurate and blind to the risks of political leaders’ policies. He said he is doing so.
The report said climate risk assessments used by financial institutions, politicians and civil servants to assess the economic effects of global warming were wrong, pointing to factors such as tipping points, rising sea temperatures, migration and climate change. He said it ignores the serious impacts of climate change that are expected to occur. and conflicts arising as a result of global warming.
“[They] They do not realize that they are in danger of ruin. They are more precisely wrong than broadly right,” the report states.
Taking these risks into account, the world faces an increased risk of ‘planetary bankruptcy’. The Earth system will deteriorate so much that humanity will no longer be able to receive the critical services it relies on to support its society and economy.
“You can’t have an economy without a society. Society needs a place to live,” Trust says.
“Nature is our foundation, providing us with food, water, air, and the raw materials and energy that power our economies. Threats to the stability of this foundation are risks to future human prosperity, and we must address them. We must take action to avoid it.”
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The report, titled “Planetary Solvency — Finding Balance with Nature,” focuses on what humans can get from the Earth to generate their own growth. It criticizes the dominant economic theory used by governments in developed countries. It does not take into account the real risks that the destruction of nature poses to society and the economy.
The report calls for a paradigm shift in the way political leaders, civil servants and governments tackle global warming. “Leaders and decision makers around the world need to understand why these changes are necessary.
“It is these extreme situations that should drive policy decisions…Policymakers are currently failing to heed warnings about the risks to ongoing human progress, and are failing to address them with the necessary urgency.” They are reluctant to deal with it.”
This report proposes a planetary solvency risk dashboard that would provide information to help policymakers advance human activities within the Earth’s finite confines.
Tim Renton, professor of climate change and earth system science at the University of Exeter and co-author of the report, said: “Current approaches neither adequately assess rising planetary risks nor control them. The solvency of the planet has not been achieved. Applying risk experts’ established approaches to our life support systems and realizing that they are at risk, this is a great way to understand global risks and limit them. It provides a clear way to prioritize actions.”
