A massive tropical storm that moistens the coast of Bangladesh It could attack every 100 years in the first century or even more frequently by 2100, a new study says.
The densely packed Bangladesh is already one of the most cyclone-prone countries in the world, and the climate crisis has significantly increased the chances of extreme storm tides.
If fossil fuel emissions continue at current rates, Bangladesh may witness a 10-fold increase in extreme floods from storm currents by the end of this century, a study of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology estimates is estimated.
In the case of continuous global heating and sea level rise, storm current heights are likely to increase from about 3.5m to more than 5m in some regions now, a study published in the journal states. One Earth on friday.
“We’ve seen almost ten times rise in the recurrence of devastating storm currents almost everywhere in Bangladesh,” says Sai Lavera, a leading research scientist in the MIT division of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences. “This cannot be ignored.”
Storm tides are caused when cyclones push the seawater inland, especially when they coincide with high tides. These floods can be devastating in Delta regions like Bangladesh. Bangladesh is already threatened by rising seas and increasingly intense storms.
Most South Asian countries are lowland and dense deltas, with over 171 million people. Its coastal areas are regularly abused by cyclones, and the country is also experiencing intense seasonal monsoons. However, new modeling shows that the separation between these two events is disappearing. This means that overlapping disasters can be more and more hit.
“If monsoon rain comes in and saturates the soil, the cyclones come in, making the problem even worse,” says Dr. Lavera. “People have no reprieve between extreme storms and monsoons. There are so many combined and cascaded effects between the two.”
Using high-resolution climate and fluid dynamics models, MIT research simulates tens of thousands of cyclones in various warming scenarios, and concludes that even the most extreme storm tides once considered “a 100-year event” can become regular events.
The study warns that the timing of cyclone season will change, bringing closer to Bangladesh’s monsoon season and increasing the risk of consecutive floods.
In recent years, Bangladesh has made extensive investments in cyclone shelters, levees and early warning systems, but preparations are primarily based on current risks.
“Bangladesh is very active in preparing for climate risks and risks, but the problem is that everything they do is based on what they see in the current climate,” says Dr. Lavera. “So I think this is timely. Just say we have to pause and revisit how they protect against these storms.”
Bangladesh faces some of the deadliest tropical cyclones in recorded history. In 1970, the Bhola Cyclone killed between 300,000 and 500,000 people, and in 1991, the Cyclone killed more than 138,000 people.
Repeated floods and storms have already caused internal movements from coastal regions to urban areas such as Dhaka, straining infrastructure and services.
The World Bank estimates that by 2050, up to 13 million Bangladesh could be evacuated due to the outcome of the climate crisis.
The study focuses on Bangladesh, but researchers say a broader message applies to the world.
“This climate change story unfolds in Bangladesh will also unfold elsewhere,” Dr. Lavera argues. “Maybe where you are, the story is about heat stress, or amplification of droughts and wildfires. The dangers are different. But the underlying catastrophe stories aren’t that different.”
