an asteroid This is big enough to wipe out the city in 2032. It could hit the planet in 43/43. However, new calculations show that instead, the chances of collisions on the moon are even lower.
February 7th, NASA Scientist It has increased the possibility of Asteroid 2024 YR4 It collided with the Earth on December 22, 2032, almost doubled it 1.2% to 2.3%.
The potentially dangerous asteroid measures an estimated 180 feet (55 meters). It is as wide as Cinderella Castle in Walt Disney World, and travels at about 30,000 mph (48,000 kph). Although too small to end human civilization, the 2024 YR4 still wiped out major cities and was able to release about 8 megatons of energy upon impact. Hiroshima, Japan. But what if it hurts the moon instead?
David RankinOperations Engineer at the University of Arizona Catalina Sky Survey, I’ll post it on Bluesky Asteroids are also 0.3% likely to hit our natural satellite. The effect of this unfortunate collision is likely visible to our planet – we ourselves will probably not be affected.
“This could emit some material that could be hit by Earth, but I’m very suspicious that it poses a major threat,” Rankin said. I told a new scientist.
That doesn’t mean we don’t see it. Rankin He spoke to Live Science It is likely that collisions with the moon will release more energy than 340 Hiroshima bombs, based on current estimates. “It’s probably going to be very noticeable from the Earth,” he said.
but, Gareth Collins“We’ll be very safe on Earth,” a professor of planetary science at Imperial College London told a new scientist. He added that material that was kicked out of the collision would likely burn out in the Earth’s atmosphere.
Related: How many Space Locks collide with the moon each year?
Throughout its history, month It is affected by countless asteroid artillery fires, as can be seen on the crater-covered surface. However, if the moon takes a hit from the 2024 YR4, it leaves a crater up to 1.2 km (2 km) in diameter, new scientists reported. (It’s just a pot hole The biggest crater of the moonAntarctic-pillar basin with diameters of over 1,500 miles (2,400 km). )
The probability of space locking to hit either the Earth or the Moon is still very low, and the international team of scientists James Webb has been approved for emergency use Space Telescope (JWST) Learn more about the size and trajectory of Space Lock before leaving Earth’s sight for the next few years.
So far, astronomers have only seen 2024 YR4 using telescopes on Earth, and estimate its size by measuring the amount of light bouncing off an asteroid. However, this is a rather inaccurate estimate. Instead, JWST measures the heat emitted by the asteroid itself, creating a much more distinct image of the asteroid’s size and surface composition.
“At the moment there is still a 97.9% chance of making a mistake with the Earth.” Rankin told Live Science By email. “When the odds doubled from 1% to 2%, this caused a lot of noise. But it’s not the same thing going from 40% to 80%. This asteroid losing sleep is a thing. there is no.”
