The Indian elections are over, and Narendra Modi has been sworn in for a third term. However, the opposition coalition (“India”) Declared Modi’s “moral and political defeat” in this election. Why?
During the election campaign, Modi’s party, the BJP, and the ruling coalition, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), boasted that they would win more than 400 seats this time. Abu Ki Baal 400 PairThe pro-Modi media went wild with the slogan and quickly Projection started “400 seats.”
Public debate was relentlessly entangled in this very question: Can the NDA win 400 seats? Everyone seemed to ignore the basic fact that only 270 seats are needed to form the government.
that’s why, The BJP won 240 seats. And the NDA won 293 seats, so it was a surprise. And it’s true: for the first time in a decade, Modi has to rule with a coalition government rather than an absolute majority.
But if you read only the liberal media coverage of these results, it can sometimes seem as if the opposition, not Modi, won.
Fingers marked with indelible ink during Indian parliamentary elections. Image from Simply CVR Flicker
Many experts Foretold Democracy triumphs, and defeat Blame it on Modi’s authoritarianism. Influential liberal commentator Pratap Bhanu Mehta: Claimed “The gloomy atmosphere, the suffocating shadow of authoritarianism, the nauseating winds of communalism have vanished, at least for now.”
But the simple fact of the election is this: the BJP won 240 seats and the opposition coalition won 232. The BJP effectively maintained its total election vote share from the 2019 election at 36% while the opposition coalition won 21.19%.
The result is certainly a setback for Prime Minister Modi, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Hindu nationalist right more broadly, and certainly a moment of breathing space for the opposition. But it would be foolish to celebrate this moment as a victory.
A sober analysis from the left
At this point, I would like to offer three observations about the difficult road ahead for Indian democracy.
First, the good news: the poor, Muslims, Dalits, and “other backward classes” — the marginalized and oppressed sections of the Indian population — voted against Modi’s government. The opposition coalition, running on issues of welfare, employment, and constitutionalism, was able to effectively mobilize these sections against Modi’s authoritarianism. This was a much-needed course correction for the liberal left and a renewal of social democratic political discourse.
The second, more sobering fact is that the pro-Modi vote share did not fall. This leads to two inferences: an optimistic one and a pessimistic one. The optimistic inference is that the opposition coalition worked out a very effective seat-sharing agreement among its member parties to translate vote share into seats. This is no easy feat, given the ideological diversity of the opposition coalition, the large number of prominent politicians, and the existence of factions and cults.
Pessimistic reasoning is what I was arguing for. Before the electionHindu nationalism has taken over. To win elections, Hindu nationalist forces must rely on a consolidated Hindu voting bloc, despite alienating large segments of India’s poor and marginalized. This means that the elections in India are essentially fought for the 65% of voters outside the Hindu voting bloc, most of whom are poor and those in border states where rural and regional identities dominate. The challenge for the opposition parties going forward will be to play a defensive game to limit the BJP’s vote share to 35% and fall short of an absolute majority in the parliament.
The third observation is that rifts are emerging within the ruling party. This has two dimensions. First, excessive centralization of the party under the Modi government has created rifts within it by alienating both party leaders and members. Hindu nationalist volunteer group It usually provides mobilization support to the BJP. Secondly, it is a coalition partner of the BJP. Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Andhra Pradesh, and Janata Dal United The JDU in Bihar is sure to limit Modi’s scope for maneuver. This will create a classic dilemma for the BJP: go strong on Hindu nationalist politics or compromise with partners with different regional interests? The former would jeopardize Modi’s coalition government, the latter would displease his Hindu supporters. The constraints this coalition places on Modi will be his biggest challenge in his third term.
The next step for India’s Left/Liberal Opposition will not be easy. The bare minimum is for the Indian Union to remain united, rather than settling petty differences.
The next challenge is to put relentless pressure on all the government’s authoritarian practices and Hindu nationalist policies. This includes both supporting civil society protests against the regime and constantly publicizing the government’s failures. At the same time, the opposition should continue to mobilize India’s poor and caste people, raising local and subnational issues and concerns. This is a defensive battle for 65% of the electorate. The goal is to prevent Hindu nationalists from drawing poor Hindus, Dalits, and OBC (“Other Backward Classes”) groups into an organized Hindu voting bloc against Muslims. An encouraging example of the opposition’s demonstration of its medium-term goal is the over-representation of OBCs (especially lower OBCs), Dalits, and Muslims on its election candidate lists. Most of the BJP’s candidates were upper-caste Hindus.
The long-term challenge for the opposition parties in India is to foster a stronger voting bloc around the issues of inequality and constitutional freedoms. Politicizing caste, class and regional/sub-national inequalities are key elements of this long-term challenge. The opposition parties must anchor and deepen the social democratic discourse they invented during the elections. And they must make their valued commitment to equality and freedom seem like common sense. Whenever an opposition coalition forms a government in state elections, it should campaign and then govern on these principles.
Viewed in the abstract, these goals should be achievable. Unfortunately, the current opposition coalition is filled with opportunistic, short-sighted and corrupt politicians. The Indian Left’s eagerness to celebrate Modi’s setbacks as major victories seems to me a sign of weakness. Real progress will come from a more far-sighted leader and a sober analysis of the challenges ahead.
Till then, Indian democracy will remain on life support.
This article was first Open Seminar On June 24, 2024.
