Thanks to a very active sun, we may have even more chances to see supercharged aurora borealis in the coming months.
Solar activity increases and decreases depending on the month. 11 year cycle. Experts say the current cycle, known as Solar Cycle 25, began in December 2019 and is still at its peak.
“We are currently about two years into the peak phase, so we expect the peak phase to continue for about another year before we actually enter the decline phase, which will bring us back to normal. “Ro” solar minimum” said Lisa Upton, co-chair of the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel and chief scientist at the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio, Texas, at a press conference on Tuesday, October 15.
solar flares, CMEs, dancing auroras
Each solar cycle is characterized by the rise and fall of the Sun’s natural magnetic activity and the number of magnetic activities. sunspot It develops. Sunspots are relatively cool, dark regions on the surface of a star that occur when the magnetic field changes. solar A commotion occurs.
Related: “It was a magical three hours”: Stargazing with the spectacular aurora borealis (photos)
Sunspots act as launch pads solar flarea powerful explosion that blasts high-energy light into space. Flares are often accompanied by the following symptoms: coronal mass ejection (CME), a giant eruption of magnetic fields and plasma that could cause a magnetic storm if it collided with Earth. These storms can promote the appearance of the Northern Lights, as they do around the world. Saw it last week. But it can also have negative effects, such as disrupting Earth’s power grids and affecting astronauts and space satellites.
Upton said solar cycle 25 features a more pronounced maximum than its predecessors, but forecasters still believe it is a smaller cycle.
“Because the small cycle is long, the maximum phase is even longer, lasting three to four years,” she says. In such cycles, “double or triple peaks are also more likely to occur, making it more difficult to say with confidence that a maximum has occurred.”
During solar maximum periods, space weather is more likely to affect Earth. A good example of this is May 2024 solar stormAccording to scientists, the most powerful aurora display may have occurred when several CMEs collided with our planet. in the last 500 years.
“Solar cycle 25 sunspot activity is slightly higher than expected. However, although we have seen some large storms, they are no larger than what would be expected during the maximum phase of the cycle,” Upton said. he said.
If solar cycle 25 has one to two years left of maximum solar cycle 25, it could affect astronauts on their way: NASA plans to launch manned astronauts. artemis 2 and artemis 3 Lunar mission during that period. The crew will be far from the protection of Earth’s atmosphere and magnetic field, making them susceptible to radiation emitted by the star.
prepare for the storm
“When large magnetic storms like this happen, like they did last week, they can disrupt the alignment of the atmosphere above us, called the ionosphere. Signals can bounce off the ground from the ionosphere, and signals can be sent out. Possibly. satellite It must travel through the ionosphere to reach a receiver on the ground. During big storms, it can be disturbed, and we see it all the time,” said Bill Murtaugh, program coordinator at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). said at a press conference on Tuesday.
“Last week and in May, high-frequency communications with aircraft were significantly affected,” he added. “If there is no relative alarm and no one knows, there are going to be some problems. It is critical to assess vulnerabilities and address the issues in order to develop mitigation strategies and be prepared and ready to act. ”
SWPC forecasters say that while the current solar maximum remains in place, more solar and geomagnetic storms are likely, some of which could be relatively large and significant. It is said that However, advanced communications efforts can minimize the impact on Earth and space.
“We are becoming a race to space, sending more and more assets into space and moving them to other places on Earth. solar system“We will grow our wealth in space, venture to the moon, MarsAnd elsewhere we hope to improve our ability to understand space weather, not just here on Earth, but throughout the solar system. ”
