The Venezuelan crisis has become one of Latin America’s longest and most complex conflicts in recent decades. Nicolas Maduro’s hold on power, supported by electoral fraud, has defied all expectations. One of the main reasons he continues to rule is direct support from Cuba.
According to former Mexican Foreign Minister Jorge G. Castañeda, Cuba’s intervention not only strengthened the stability of Maduro’s government, but also made any solution impossible without Havana’s approval.
For years, the role Cubans play in Venezuela has been debated. Castañeda explained how Maduro’s regime has been supported by a Cuban contingent that acts as a kind of “guard force” to protect the Venezuelan leader from any attempts to overthrow it.
This situation, rarely seen in recent history, is a key factor in preventing Venezuela’s military from taking actions that could destabilize the regime. According to Castañeda, the Cuban contingent is made up of intelligence agents who constantly monitor the Venezuelan military to ensure that internal movements do not threaten President Maduro’s power.
Cubans, more loyal to their country than Venezuela, are tasked with maintaining President Maduro’s rule to protect Havana’s interests. Castañeda noted that Cuban officers are not affected by Venezuela’s economic and social crisis and are less susceptible to pressures that may affect local military personnel.
Cuban influence in Venezuela: beyond the military
Cuba’s support for Maduro is not limited to the military. Cuba’s influence extends to Venezuela’s political and economic system, evident in policies of social control and repression of opposition, which reflect the Cuban model.
Additionally, the Maduro regime has adopted a subsistence economic approach similar to Cuba’s, relying heavily on international aid and natural resource development to survive. Relations between Cuba and Venezuela are strong through trade and energy agreements, including exchanging Venezuelan oil for medical services provided by Cuba.
This type of arrangement allows Cuba to avoid international sanctions imposed by the United States, while Venezuela benefits from strategic support from one of the region’s longest-running dictatorships.
What are the possible motivations for changing Cuba’s position?
Castañeda maintains that the only way to change Cuba’s position toward Venezuela is to normalize relations with the United States. He believes that given Cuba’s dire economic situation, lifting U.S. sanctions and resuming remittances is the only viable solution for Havana. This stimulus could cause Cuba to reconsider its support for Maduro and pursue a more negotiated solution to the Venezuelan crisis.
Mexico’s position under the Claudia Sheinbaum administration
Claudia Sheinbaum’s assumption of office as president of Mexico has heightened uncertainty about how she will handle the country’s foreign policy response to the Venezuelan crisis. Mr. Castañeda expressed concern that Mr. Sheinbaum’s approach could be even more passive than that of his predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. While AMLO called for discussion at least in an international forum, Mr. Sheinbaum took a more neutral position, suggesting his government remains “impartial” regarding Venezuela.
This neutrality could have negative consequences for Mexico in the region. The lack of a clear position weakens the efforts of countries such as Colombia and Brazil, which have led the international pressure for a peaceful solution to Venezuela. Sheinbaum’s lukewarm approach indirectly supports the communist regime.
claudia sheinbaum “Our position is constitutional,” he stressed, echoing the positions of Colombia, Brazil and the United States on Venezuela. She said: “We will continue to be impartial in this matter.”
