As of Tuesday morning, reliable forecasters were saying that Tropical Storm Helen, a powerful storm just south of Cuba, was almost certain to strengthen over the next few days and hit Florida as a hurricane on Thursday.
Right now is that time of year when we all love to stare at the cones and “spaghetti models” showing the expected path of a storm as it approaches, but first: Be careful with how you take it A notorious misconception information.
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Why it’s impossible to predict the weather in the distant future
NOAA’s Storm Helen’s cone map
As of 11 a.m. ET, hurricane watches were in effect for most of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo, Cuba’s Pinar del Rio state, the “Inglewood to Indian Pass” swath of Florida, and densely populated Tampa Bay, according to NOAA. Here’s a pictorial representation:
NOAA’s cone map of Tropical Storm Helene, showing the threat to parts of Mexico, Cuba and Florida.
Credit: NOAA
Just to be clear, the NOAA cone graph is: Center of the Storm It’s impossible to say how long it will take. At first glance, the cone does not seem to predict an ever-widening storm that will strike the inland U.S. While high winds and storm surges are possible and probably will occur outside the cone, some areas inside the cone will escape the storm quite unscathed.
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If you’re reading this and are facing a direct hit from a hurricane, it’s unlikely you’ll miss evacuation orders. At this stage, most areas are wise to follow NOAA’s broader warnings rather than guessing whether a particular area will face the high winds and storm surge of a direct hit from a hurricane.
Heavy rainfall and locally significant flash flooding is likely across much of Florida, with localized flash flooding and urban flooding possible in parts of the Southeast, Southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley from Wednesday through Friday.
Helen’s Spaghetti Model
Spaghetti models, like the NOAA Cone Model, help visualize mathematical possibilities.
Unlike cones, they show actual paths predicted by a collection of computer models, all of which are spilling out like spaghetti from Strega Nona’s magic pasta pot. And like cones, spaghetti models can be misleading; all the paths in the spaghetti models are guesses and contradict each other. A real storm can only follow one path, and it’s almost certain that none of these noodle-splashing predicted paths are perfectly predictive.
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The model, posted online by Baton Rouge meteorologist Malcolm Byron, projects about 20 possible paths, including one that could send ominous spaghetti clouds, especially on the eastern edge, hurtling toward Tampa Bay. Such outliers should be taken with caution by the public.
Most of the time, predicted extreme events do not come to fruition. However, the events do not match the averages predicted. Top weather models Incredibly accurateWeather simply happens, and the exact picture will always be quite different, with countless small natural and man-made factors contributing to the outcome.
