France was left in a state of disunity between ruling and opposition parties on Sunday, with talks to form a government stalled after an unexpected left-wing victory thwarted efforts by Marine Le Pen to install a far-right coalition in power.
Early pollsters predict that the left-wing coalition will win the most seats in the crucial general election, a blow to Le Pen’s National Rally, which was on the brink of winning a parliamentary majority.
If this result is confirmed, it will represent a major success for the concerted anti-RN strategy in which the left and center parties strategically withdrew their candidates from the runoff election.
But the result leaves the euro zone’s second-largest economy without anything close to a majority in the 577-seat National Assembly, leaving it in limbo over who will form its next government.
Estimates based on early results suggest that the left-leaning New Popular Front (NFP) could emerge as the largest party, winning between 170 and 215 seats, according to pollsters Ipsos, Ifop, Opinionway and Ellerbe.
But President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble coalition is trailing closely, with opinion polls predicting it will win between 140 and 180 seats — a significant drop from the roughly 250 it held in the outgoing National Assembly.
Meanwhile, Le Pen’s party, Republican front, Opinion polls predict the party can win up to 160 seats, nearly double its number in the last parliament.
When the first estimated results were published on Sunday, there were cries of surprise and tears within the RN electoral party.
The flag-waving and chants seen after the first round of parliamentary elections last week were replaced by a stunned silence.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, an anti-capitalist firebrand and leader of the far-left French party within the NFP, La France Insubordinate (LFI), struck a combative tone, calling on Macron to appoint a left-wing prime minister.
“The president has the authority and the obligation to ask the emerging Popular Front to govern,” he said, promising to implement the high-tax, high-spending NFP program that has scared off investors.
“The will of the people must be strictly respected… The defeat of the president and his coalition is certain,” Mélenchon said.
The NFP, hastily formed after President Macron called early elections last month, also includes the centre-right Socialist Party (PS), the Communist Party and the Greens.
At a Socialist Party election event in Belleville, Paris, cheers of joy broke out over the predicted results, with chants of “people on the front line” and singing of La Marseillaise.
“It’s fantastic, of course it’s fantastic,” Nicolas Meyer Rossignol, the mayor of Rouen and a leading Socialist figure, told the Financial Times.
The NFP’s economic program will be a stark departure from Macron’s pro-business policies and enthusiasm for tax cuts.
The euro fell 0.3 percent against the dollar after the left party was projected to win the most seats in parliament.
France, along with Germany, has a great deal of influence over EU policy and so is entering a period of political uncertainty that will have implications for both France and the EU.
In the French system, the president chooses the prime minister, who is usually chosen from the party with the most seats in Parliament, even if it doesn’t have a majority.
French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who took office in January and led the Ensemble movement, said he would step down on Monday but stay on as caretaker prime minister for as long as needed.
Ahead of the vote, Macron and his allies said they were open to forming a coalition government made up of lawmakers from different parties – left, centre and right – but excluding the far-left LFI.
Such an arrangement would amount to “living together,” and given the significant policy differences between the two parties, such an agreement may be difficult to reach.
Despite Mélenchon’s ambitions to become prime minister, other factions within the NFP are strongly opposed and are also seeking the prime ministerial post.
The last resort would be to appoint a technocratic government led by an experienced but non-partisan figure, which would go completely against French political tradition.
Although pollsters’ predictions are far ahead of Macron’s expectations, the election will still weaken his authority.
Macron took a gamble by calling for early voting after his centrist Ensemble coalition suffered a crushing defeat to Le Pen’s RN party in the European Parliament elections in June.
The president defended the move, which surprised and angered many even in his own camp, as a necessary opportunity for “clarification.”
Bernard Sananes, head of polling firm Ellerbe, said the results represented a “victory” for centre-left parties who had formed a “Republican Front”, and that their confrontation with the far-right had led to higher voter turnout in key elections.
