A new assessment suggests that if the average global temperature reaches 2°C on average before the Industrial Revolution, the wide area may be too high during extreme thermal events for many to survive without artificial cooling. I warn that there is.
This paper states that even healthy people ages 18 to 60 are too hot to keep their core temperatures safe at about three times to 6% during humid heat waves. I’m discovering it. Areas that threaten more vulnerable people over the age of 60 will increase to about 35% of the planet’s land.
paper It’s just been published In the journal Nature reviews the Earth and the environment.
Last year was the first calendar year, with the global average temperature above 1.5 degrees above the average before the Industrial Revolution. At current rates of warming, it was possible to reach two degrees by the mid- or late 21st century.
“To date, it is only temporarily exceeded for the elderly in the hottest regions of the world, so the unsurviving thermal threshold is likely to emerge even in young adults.” In these circumstances, long-term outdoor exposure is expected to cause fatal heat stroke, whether in shade or in strong breezes and well-hydrated.
This paper is based on previous work by asking, “What if?” “What if you underestimate how hot and humid the worst future events are?” Radley Hortonprofessor at the Columbia School of Climate, climate scientist at the school’s Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, and co-author of the paper.
Horton co-authored a 2017 paper predicting that potentially fatal combinations of heat and humidity could begin to emerge later this century, and later revealed that they have already appeared in places for a short time. A study from 2020 has been shown.
For their assessment, the team gathered scientific discoveries to link physical climate science to the risk of fever death. The analysis examined what they call “uncompensable” thresholds, beyond which the temperature of the human core rises uncontrollably, with a “easy” threshold. The core temperature rises within 6 hours.
Between 1994 and 2023, uncompensable thresholds were destroyed in about 2% of the world land area for adults under the age of 60, as the combination of temperature and humidity prevented the human body from coping with each other. For the elderly. Uncompensable thresholds have been passed at all ages, but so far unacceptable thresholds have only been passed temporarily for older people.
If the level reaches 4-5 degrees before the Industrial Revolution, older people may experience uncompensable fever in about 60% of the land during extreme events. At this level of warming, insurvival fever also begins to emerge as a threat to young adults in the hottest subtropical regions.
Certain regions have a higher risk for people in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asian countries to exceed the most uncompensable and unacceptable thresholds on the shooting line.
“As many of the planets experience outdoor conditions that are too hot for our physiology, it is essential that people have reliable access to cool environments to evacuate from the heat,” Matthews said. Ta.
Since 2000, the most deadly heat event has seen over 260,000 fever-related deaths. The three most deadly events of the 21st century caused about 72,000 deaths across Europe in 2003, another 62,000 in Europe in 2022, and about 200,000 deaths, including the Russian heatwave in 2010, and about 56,000 deaths. A person has died.
Researchers from the University of California, Stanford University, NASA Goddard Space Research Institute and Boston University also participated in the study.
An adaptation from a press release by King’s College London.
