Anne Selzer’s iowa poll Because what the Des Moines Register announced Saturday is a political thermonuclear bomb.
kamala harris:47
donald trump:44
Trump was ahead in the last poll. 47-43 in September, and leading President Joe Biden 50-32 In June.
And this is more important than saying, “This is just one poll.”
Mr. Selzer is one of the most accurate pollsters in the nation and does most of his work in his home state of Iowa.
her trajectory record Perfect: (actual results in parentheses)
2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12)
2020 president:R+7 (R+8)
2020 Senate:R+4 (R+7)
2018 Governor:D+2 (R+3) — rare mistake
2016 President:R+7 (R+9)
2014 Senate:R+7 (R+8)
2012 President:D+5 (D+6)
I remember the 2016 poll like it was yesterday. At the time, Iowa was still considered a battleground state, and the state was heavily contested by Hillary Clinton’s campaign. When those results came back, we ignored them because they were so far off from other polls showing a narrow but steady lead for Clinton. In hindsight, that was the canary in the coal mine.
And the same is true for Donald Trump today. It’s not just the trend line. In 2020, Trump won Iowa by 8 points. Even a few point swing in a white, rural state in the Midwest could have an incredible impact on the Republican Party’s chances across the Midwest and even in Nebraska, which independent Sen. Dan Osborn is trying to pull away from. It will pose a danger. He pulled off a huge upset that ousted incumbent Republican Deb Fischer in the deep red state. Iowa also has two competitive House races, and if the numbers hold, Democrats could flip both races on Tuesday.
The inside story is downright brutal for Trump and his party.
“Independent voters who consistently supported Trump in the lead-up to this election now no longer support Harris. This is driven by the power of independent women, who led Harris by 28 points. Independent men support Trump by a small margin, but by a small margin.” The Register reported.
“Similarly, older voters 65 and older support Ms. Harris. However, older women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%, while older Men support her by just 2 percentage points (47% to 45%).
Mr. Harris is breaking it out with older white women in the countryside.
And who are the most reliable voters, not just in Iowa but in this extraordinary country as a whole? Yes, white, older, rural women.
So what about voting aggregators? Throw them away. Nate Silver also acknowledges that their data input is a poll.It’s trash“herdging” forces risk-averse pollsters to publish exactly the same numbers as their peers.
“Specifically, with at least this many polls showing such a close margin, the odds are 1 in 9.5 trillion,” Silver wrote. But somehow he refuses to take the next leap. If the data is literally impossible, can his model still provide any insight given it’s based on that garbage data?
That also applies to 538 and all other aggregators. Throw them away. This is a different kind of election.
As I tweeted on Friday:
This Selzer poll proves my point, and it’s not the only state where the final results differ from what the polls and aggregators claim.
I will say this: Harris is looking Really Good in the blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. And oh my goodness, the ground war is working hard for final victory.
The Sun Belt states are even tighter, and Trump has a real chance of winning these states. we don’t want that. We want to win it all and then some. Like Iowa. and the Texas and Florida Senate races.
No, this is not to say that Harris and the Democrats in the Senate and House are to blame. We will do our best to cast your last vote. anywhere.
But just like in 2016, Selzer reset his expectations for the race.
Finish it off and take it home.
