French President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election in July to gain “clarification” from voters about the leadership and direction he wants for the country.
Voters revealed a crushing defeat for the party and a hung parliament that revolted after just three months, toppling the president’s choice of prime minister, Michel Barnier, over a deficit-cutting budget.
There are currently few easy solutions for Mr. Macron, who is looking for a way out of the mess that his rivals (and even some allies) claim is his fault.
“It is difficult to find a path to stability,” admitted Francois Patria, a senator who has supported Mr Macron for many years.
Mr. Macron was kept out of domestic politics during Mr. Barnier’s brief tenure as his party lost its parliamentary majority, but the prime minister’s ouster meant that the president briefly returned to the driver’s seat.
Mr Macron will now have to elect a new prime minister and faces a similarly difficult parliamentary equation with three blocs vying for control, none of which has a majority. I hope that the Prime Minister will continue in his post.
President Macron is under pressure to act quickly as the year-end deadline to pass next year’s budget approaches, but stop-gap measures could be taken to avoid a US-style government shutdown. There is.
It took the president two months to nominate Barnier, but this time Mr Macron will need to find a replacement more quickly. The postponement risks giving a weak impression to Mr. Barnier and further roiling financial markets – last week, France’s borrowing costs soared on worries that Mr. Barnier’s budget plan would fail.
If the impasse continues for a long time, there may be growing calls for President Macron to resign before his term ends in 2027 and to hold an early presidential election.
The president is scheduled to address the nation Thursday night and outline the path forward. He has already begun searching for potential candidates for Prime Minister Matignon’s office, and is said to be hoping to name someone in the coming days.
Names circulating in French media include supporter Sébastien Lecornu. Defense Minister François Bayrou, another ally and veteran centrist. and former Socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve. A technocratic government run by civil servants and non-political figures is also a possibility.
The crisis for Macron is to salvage his remaining second term while preserving his record of enacting pro-business reforms and tax cuts, particularly in the economic sector.
However, the shrinking of the centrist Renaissance party following July’s snap election has undermined the president’s ability to set policy, and the remaining members of parliament can no longer dictate terms to potential partners. is no longer possible.
France has little tradition of coalition-building, and Macron has instead simply encouraged rival parties to work together to achieve stability and at least pass a budget.
His task is made even more difficult as far-right party leader Marine Le Pen and her National Party and far-left France Unyielding party are emboldened by their joint success in ousting Mr Barnier.
RN senior lawmaker Franck Alicio said his party would continue to push forward on priorities such as increasing the purchasing power of French people and reducing immigration. “No matter who becomes prime minister, the expectations of the voters have not changed, so by definition our demands will remain the same,” Alicio said, without ruling out the possibility that his party could topple the government again.
Building a coalition is further complicated by political heavyweights from various parties and factions in parliament vying to succeed Mr. Macron.
Like Le Pen and far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, “they’re all obsessed with the 2027 elections, and that’s when the leadership “It shapes our behavior.” “That makes it very difficult to reach a compromise in Congress.”
Some key players are advocating a different approach to choosing the next prime minister, with parliamentarians negotiating a type of non-aggression pact between willing parties in exchange for an agreement not to disrupt the national system. It is proposed that some central policies be established. government.
Boris Barrow, the head of parliament’s Socialist Party group, has not said whether his group will completely break away from its current alliance with the far left, which opposes any cooperation with Macron, and has expressed his reservations about such efforts. said he was positive. Left-wing leaders have indicated they are willing to make demands from Mr Matignon in exchange for such cooperation, a move that risks opposition from the RN.
Gabriel Attal, a former prime minister in Macron’s government and leader of the centrist party Ensemble pour la République, called for a similar alliance from the moderate left to the moderate right, but excluded what he called the “extreme” ones. .
“This will allow us all to get out of the situation where the government is hostage to Marine Le Pen,” he said, although he admitted he did not know if that would be possible.
The 2025 budget, which replaced the one rejected in Wednesday’s vote that was supposed to address France’s deteriorating public finances, still must be passed in some form amid heightened political tensions.
If parliament and the government fail to meet the deadline for drafting a constitution (something that has only happened twice in modern French history), temporary measures may be taken, such as the adoption of emergency laws or administrative measures to roll over tax and spending rules. it might be necessary. From the previous year.
Analysts at investment bank Morgan Stanley believe this is the most likely scenario, with a 2025 budget deficit of this year’s, compared with the 5.6% predicted under Mr. Barnier’s austerity plan. We expect it to increase from approximately 6.1% to 6.3%. .
Jean-François Ouvrard, the country’s executive director for economic research, said the interim amendment would “create a budget for 2025 that does not include the tax increases planned in the current plan, making it possible to reduce the budget deficit.” ” he said. Morgan Stanley.
The worst-case scenario would be that the entire 2025 budget is not passed after the new government takes office in January, an unprecedented failure.
“Here we step into uncharted territory,” says Denis Valanger, a constitutional law expert at the Panthéon Assa University in Paris. “This is a moment that was completely unexpected in the Constitution.”
Illustration: Aditi Bhandari
