Even at the best, long-term observations can be very fragile. By definition, they are continuity, so it is difficult to convince funding agencies to put money into long-term observations. They have been done before. From scientific institutions to charities, most funders want to be associated with exciting and groundbreaking work, and sustained observation is too routine to injure that itch. (Dave Keyring Records in his autobiography; Earth’s Surveillance Rewards and PenaltiesAt one point, the National Science Foundation program manager requested that they generate two discoveries per year from records of carbon dioxide levels in order to maintain funding.
Another vulnerability stems from the fact that the community of researchers who make sustained measurements of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is probably below 30. It requires patience and attention to detail, and may take years to accumulate enough data to answer important questions or make groundbreaking discoveries. Researchers must be extremely diligent and rigorous to ensure that the 1958 measurements are comparable to today’s measurements. Calibration is an endless chore. This scientific pursuit is not the case for everyone.
Awfully, the keyring curve has achieved symbolic global importance, but this can actually interfere with the funding situation rather than helping it. Environmental programs tend to be organized by geographical areas and discipline. These include the National Water Quality Program of the US Geological Survey, the NSF’s Arctic Observation Network, and the US Forest Service. Within these focused efforts, the big picture can be lost. As the field of climate change evolves, finding sponsors who accept responsibility for measuring vital signs across the globe is becoming increasingly difficult.
The original Mauna LoA measurements began in the International Geophysical Year 1957/1958. This is a massive, incredible effort led by the US, including 67 countries, and has achieved the goal (simply put) of measuring all possible physical attributes on the planet in a year. It has led to the establishment of many important scientific discoveries and many measurement programs around the world. For example, we established South Pole Station. For example, it’s a home for important climate research that is still ongoing today. It was an era of enormous optimism, international cooperation (even at the height of the Cold War), vast dreams, and global cooperation. And the United States was proud to lead the road.
This sense of effort continued in the 1970s when then President Richard Nixon (a conservative Republican) established NOAA to better understand the world’s oceans and atmosphere. By the 1980s, NOAA had grown alongside Scripps’ efforts, becoming the heart of the world’s climate science throbbing. Now, just three months after the Trump administration, we consider the abandonment of US leadership in marine and atmospheric sciences and the loss of the largest and most important observational network of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases and its calibration labs.
My NOAA colleagues live every day, but I don’t know if tomorrow will be the last day of work. We hope that common sense wins and NOAA escapes the worst. Whatever its fate, we remain in the fight to maintain the world’s ability to measure carbon levels, any support we can convene, a small breakwater for the new dark age of climate science.
