Pennsylvania has long been considered a key battleground state in U.S. presidential elections. The state’s diverse electorate, with a mix of urban, suburban, and rural areas, often reflects broader national trends, making it a key target for both major political parties. Republicans are particularly focused on flipping Pennsylvania in the 2024 election because of its historical importance and potential as a turning point in the presidential election.
In 2016, Pennsylvania was a cornerstone of Donald Trump’s victory, marking the first time the state had voted for a Republican candidate in a presidential election since 1988. But in 2020, Joe Biden won Pennsylvania by just over 1 percentage point, signaling the state’s potential for swing votes. This narrow margin of victory further intensified Republican efforts to retake power, with the realization that a win in Pennsylvania could determine the outcome of the entire election.
As part of this strategy, Republicans are targeting areas that have seen increases in voter registration, particularly Counties like Buckshas historically leaned Democratic but is now showing signs of becoming more competitive. Shrinking Margins The number of registered Democrat and Republican voters in Bucks County has fallen from more than 10,000 in 2020 to just 281 as of July 2024, a microcosm of the broader realignment happening statewide. Pennsylvania’s flip is seen not just as a political victory, but as a symbolic one that will energize the Republican base across the country.
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Why conservatives are turning to mail-in voting
One of the most significant changes in election strategy for Pennsylvania Republicans is Vote by MailTraditionally, mail-in voting has been more commonly used by Democrats, a trend that was exacerbated in the 2020 election by the COVID-19 pandemic. But Republicans know that to stay competitive, especially in pivotal states like Pennsylvania, they need to adapt and encourage voters to also use mail-in voting.
The emphasis on mail-in voting is due to several important factors. First, mail-in voting provides a safety net to ensure voter participation, especially in states where weather, health, or other unforeseen circumstances may affect turnout on Election Day. Encouraging early voting by mail allows Republicans to secure votes in advance and reduce the risk of last-minute disruptions.
Second, Republicans are learning lessons from the 2020 election, where mail-in voting played a key role in swinging the vote in favor of Joe Biden. Republican leaders like Erie County Republican Chairman Tom Eddy have been actively working to change the mindset of their base regarding mail-in voting. After initial skepticism, there have been efforts to highlight the practical benefits of mail-in voting, especially ensuring that Republican votes do not go uncounted.
Mail-in voting also allows for more efficient voter engagement and follow-up. Campaigns can maximize turnout by tracking who has returned their ballots and focusing resources on mobilizing those who haven’t. This approach is especially important in Pennsylvania, where every vote can be crucial in determining the outcome.
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How mail-in voting played a role in the 2020 election
The 2020 presidential election saw unprecedented use of mail-in voting, largely due to the pandemic but also to changes in voter behavior. In Pennsylvania, mail-in voting was particularly game-changing for Democrats, as Joe Biden’s victory in the state was heavily boosted by mail-in votes, which far outnumbered the votes cast for Donald Trump.
The impact of mail-in ballots was evident in Erie County, the state’s benchmark county, where Biden received more than three times as many mail-in votes as Trump, 32,929 to Trump’s 9,279. That margin was enough to erase Trump’s lead of more than 20,000 in-person votes, giving Biden a narrow victory in the county and contributing to his victory in Pennsylvania overall.
The importance of voting by mail in 2020 highlighted the importance of early and absentee voting as strategic tools in modern elections. It showed that campaigns can no longer afford to focus solely on turnout on Election Day, but must engage voters well in advance. The lessons of 2020 are shaping both parties’ strategies in the current election cycle, with Republicans now more actively encouraging voters to participate in voting by mail.
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What is the Pennsylvania Chase and why it matters in this election?
Pennsylvania Chase This is a grassroots effort spearheaded by Cliff Maloney, a political strategist and former president of Young Americans for Liberty. Also known as PA Chase, it aims to canvass 500,000 homes across Pennsylvania to “chase” the Republican vote and increase Republican turnout, particularly through mail-in voting.
The effort is part of a broader effort to adapt to changing voter behavior and ensure Republicans get the vote well before Election Day. By focusing on door-to-door canvassing, Pennsylvania Chase is making direct connections with voters, providing them with information on how to request and return a mail-in ballot and addressing concerns or misconceptions about the voting process.
The importance of Pennsylvania Chase cannot be overstated. In a state where elections are often decided by slim margins, every vote counts. By increasing voter participation through mail-in voting, Pennsylvania Chase aims to prevent a repeat of the 2020 election, in which Democratic advantages in early and absentee voting were key factors in their victory.
Moreover, the effort reflects a broader move within the Republican Party to embrace voting by mail as a key component of its election strategy — a recognition that to compete in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Republicans must meet voters where they are and provide them with the tools and information they need to fully participate in the electoral process.
Taken together, the focus on flipping Pennsylvania, the strategic shift to voting by mail, and the grassroots mobilization embodied in the Pennsylvania Chase all underscore the importance of the 2024 election. As Republicans work to regain control of this pivotal state, these efforts could determine the outcome not only of Pennsylvania, but of the entire presidential election.
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